In earthquake prediction, geologists work in probability distributions rather than absolute terms. Consensus is growing, however, of the likelihood of a large and devastating earthquake to strike California. Why are scientists beginning to worry? The San Andreas Fault hasn’t produced a big earthquake in that region of the fault since the M7.9 earthquake hit California in 1857, 159 years ago. The theory behind why we expect the next significant earthquake to be a big one becomes apparent in a few back of the envelope calculations. The average rate of plate movement along the San Andreas Fault has remained fairly consistent at approximately 2 inches per year for the last several million years. ...
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